Overview Wednesday 29 July...

The pattern continues. We saw some weakness in the morning, but closed well off the lows of the day, albeit still in the red. We still haven't seen any significant weakness, certainly not enough to make me think we've got an impending reversal coming. However, the weakness in the energy/commodity space and the other cyclicals was particularly notable. It's nothing that makes me want to aggressively get short at this time because the bulls are holding the market up very well this week, with minimal downside, as I expected this weekend.

Short-term bias: bearish (I'm still maintaining this as bearish, if only because I'm not chasing)

Intermediate-term bias: bearish (I still think this correction will take us lower, perhaps to 800 on the $SPX and I don't think we're ready to power higher quite yet)

Long-term bias: bullish (I believe we put in meaningful, long-term bottoms in March, and would use the aforementioned correction to increase long exposure)

Pick updates:

ALVR took an epic beatdown today, as it lost about 17%. It wasn't so much the report of a bigger than expected quarterly loss, though. It was also announced today that the CEO is stepping down. Despite the 4x average daily volume of today's selloff, I'll keep ALVR on the list for the moment because it was able to close right around the intersection between its 50-day and 200-day EMAs.

As I mentioned above, the cyclicals took a beating today, including FCX, SGR, MDR, and RIG. Several others, like EBAY, F, SBUX, CELG, MAS, and MJN simply continued consolidating.



Postions: long DFS August $12.50 puts, PALM November $12.50 calls, and $SPX index fund in 401k