Here's a quickie post with a couple miscellaneous links of interest I happened upon this week.
The first is a link to a new trading system which I have begun to experiment with. I found it on Ken Wolff's daytrading website, MTrader. This is a top-notch site focused primarily on daytrading, with a great educational section. The system is called the Catman system, and details about it can be found here and here. Catman's system is very much a common-sense based system, and though not entirely fool-proof (no system truly is, and anyone who tells you otherwise should not be trusted).
I am experimenting with the Catman system in all three of my accounts, namely the trading account, the IRA, and the 401k. In doing this blog so far, I've learned it's important to have a defined system and stick with it, one that gives clear-cut signals of when to buy/cover, sell/short, and avoid. It also helps to take the emotion out of the process. The Catman system appears to function well in multiple timeframes (as would many systems).
The tentative plan is to use the Catman system with daily/weekly charts with the indices in my 401k (I have a lot of index funds in my 401k). Likely, I will use the system with daily/weekly charts of individual stocks and/or levered index ETFs in the IRA. As for the trading account, I will probably try to use intraday charts for daytrades and multi-day trades in the indices and individual stocks. Most likely, I will be sticking with the indices and associated leveraged ETFs in all three accounts for the time being and eventually ease my way into individual stocks in daily and intraday timeframes.
I'm still working this out here, but I think it's quite promising.
The Market Speculator on his blog is presently doing a once-a-week series about how to effectively manage time as a part-time trader. I'm just putting a post here to provide a link to what he's done so far because it's really quite insightful. He's done two parts so far, and they can be reached below.
Part 1
Part 2
That's about it for now.
Sunday, August 23, 2009
Weekly Preview 24-28 August...
I didn't post much last week, as my market time was sidetracked in several different directions. Anyway, the bears started strong last week, but by Tuesday, the bulls had regained control and have now pushed us higher. Last week was expiration week, so we'll probably see a bit of a post-expiration hangover again on Monday. Also, the last day of August is next Monday, so I would expect the bulls to be able to hold us up through this week and into next week (which will experience holiday trading, which also tends to have a bullish bias). I would not expect the bears to get much going on the downside for the next couple weeks.
Earnings are pretty slow this week, as we're well past the peak of the season. However, there is still a lot of retail coming up.
I will defer to Michael McDonough's blog for a better description and overview of those than I could give. It is located at http://fiateconomics.com/
Earnings will continue to pour in this week, too. I use www.earnings.com as my source for earnings reports. These are very important to follow because they have a way of scrambling up the charts. I don't like being in stocks before they report earnings unless I am somehow hedged, be it through reducing my position size or some options action or whatever. I've come to view earnings as a very binary event, a coin flip, if you will. Loading up heavily one way betting on the outcome of a report AND the market's reaction is a very risky endeavour.
The same listing convention still applied. If it reports after the close Tuesday or before the open Wednesday or is shown as Wednesday with no given time, it is listed here as Tuesday. I've also listed the previous Friday's here, too.
Friday: none
Monday: BIG, BGP, BKC, CHS, CMRG, COCO, MDT, SAFM, SBA, SPLS, TUES,
Tuesday: BCSI, DY, ACH, BWS, CM, CEO, CCUR, DLTR, DSW, ISLE, KIRK, WSM,
Wednesday: CWTR, GES, HEI, JAS, SIGM, TIVO, AEO, APWR, CSUN, CHA, DLIA, FRED, GCO, GRB, JCG, RY, SZE, TOL, TD, VIP,
Thursday: ARUN, BEBE, LAVA, MRVL, OVTI, SLH, BNS, TIF,
Friday: CMM, TTWO,
Position: none
Earnings are pretty slow this week, as we're well past the peak of the season. However, there is still a lot of retail coming up.
I will defer to Michael McDonough's blog for a better description and overview of those than I could give. It is located at http://fiateconomics.com/
Earnings will continue to pour in this week, too. I use www.earnings.com as my source for earnings reports. These are very important to follow because they have a way of scrambling up the charts. I don't like being in stocks before they report earnings unless I am somehow hedged, be it through reducing my position size or some options action or whatever. I've come to view earnings as a very binary event, a coin flip, if you will. Loading up heavily one way betting on the outcome of a report AND the market's reaction is a very risky endeavour.
The same listing convention still applied. If it reports after the close Tuesday or before the open Wednesday or is shown as Wednesday with no given time, it is listed here as Tuesday. I've also listed the previous Friday's here, too.
Friday: none
Monday: BIG, BGP, BKC, CHS, CMRG, COCO, MDT, SAFM, SBA, SPLS, TUES,
Tuesday: BCSI, DY, ACH, BWS, CM, CEO, CCUR, DLTR, DSW, ISLE, KIRK, WSM,
Wednesday: CWTR, GES, HEI, JAS, SIGM, TIVO, AEO, APWR, CSUN, CHA, DLIA, FRED, GCO, GRB, JCG, RY, SZE, TOL, TD, VIP,
Thursday: ARUN, BEBE, LAVA, MRVL, OVTI, SLH, BNS, TIF,
Friday: CMM, TTWO,
Position: none
Monday, August 17, 2009
FCX (Short)...
It's been a long time since we looked at FCX as a short here. And that setup for a head-and-shoulders top failed miserably. Indeed, that actually would've proven to be a great time to buy. I missed that one. It could've been worse; I could've been short of it through that massive move higher. Oh well.
But I'm going back to the well here. This time, I think it's an island top forming in FCX. You can see how FCX gapped up to begin August, but gapped down today, thus creating a little island of sorts. This is typically a pretty reliable pattern for a top. Today was also significant in that $60 acted as resistance for several months until it was broken by the aforementioned gap-up to start August.
So we'll look to play it by having a stop above today's highs (call it $61 or so) because if it goes that high, it's probably going to fill that gap, which would take us probably up around $64 or so. I would look for the 50-day and 200-day EMAs to act as support temporarily on a pullback, but if this pattern really sets in, FCX could head back to the bottom of the range and end up around $45.
Position: none
But I'm going back to the well here. This time, I think it's an island top forming in FCX. You can see how FCX gapped up to begin August, but gapped down today, thus creating a little island of sorts. This is typically a pretty reliable pattern for a top. Today was also significant in that $60 acted as resistance for several months until it was broken by the aforementioned gap-up to start August.
So we'll look to play it by having a stop above today's highs (call it $61 or so) because if it goes that high, it's probably going to fill that gap, which would take us probably up around $64 or so. I would look for the 50-day and 200-day EMAs to act as support temporarily on a pullback, but if this pattern really sets in, FCX could head back to the bottom of the range and end up around $45.
Position: none
Overview Monday 17 August...
The bears actually got something going today to start off options expiration week. I was flabbergasted. Though the bulls were able to hold the lows into the close around 980 on the $SPX, they couldn't muster any kind of rally. Volume picked up today, as well. This is ok, though. This is what a correction feels like. Corrections are painful, gutwrenching even. Many times, the biggest recent winners are the biggest losers in a correction. Until the dip-buyers show up, I would be inclined to stand aside and not press much on the long side, preferring to let the market come to me and my levels (and hopefully bottom for me instead of trying to catch the falling knife). As long as this correction doesn't turn into a full-blown reversal, the bulls are still in charge. I'm not inclined to aggressively short at this time, but it's safe to consider shorts again (for now).
Short-term bias: bearish (I'm still maintaining this as bearish, if only because I'm not chasing, but I do believe we had a buying climax)
Intermediate-term bias: bearish (I still think this correction will take us lower, perhaps to 800 on the $SPX and I don't think we're ready to power higher quite yet)
Long-term bias: bullish (I believe we put in meaningful, long-term bottoms in March, and would use the aforementioned correction to increase long exposure)
Pick updates:
As you can see, everything was down today (literally). You will also note that the early cyclicals and economically-sensitive stocks, such as F, FCX, and MAS, took it most bruntly today.
EGO also had a surprisingly bad day, but you can see why I didn't want to chase it last week.
This kind of pullback is bullish in the end because it provides us better entries.
No new additions to the prospects list, either.
Position: long $SPX index fund in 401k
Short-term bias: bearish (I'm still maintaining this as bearish, if only because I'm not chasing, but I do believe we had a buying climax)
Intermediate-term bias: bearish (I still think this correction will take us lower, perhaps to 800 on the $SPX and I don't think we're ready to power higher quite yet)
Long-term bias: bullish (I believe we put in meaningful, long-term bottoms in March, and would use the aforementioned correction to increase long exposure)
Pick updates:
As you can see, everything was down today (literally). You will also note that the early cyclicals and economically-sensitive stocks, such as F, FCX, and MAS, took it most bruntly today.
EGO also had a surprisingly bad day, but you can see why I didn't want to chase it last week.
This kind of pullback is bullish in the end because it provides us better entries.
No new additions to the prospects list, either.
Position: long $SPX index fund in 401k
Saturday, August 15, 2009
Weekly Preview 17-21 August...
Well, last week's wave of retail earnings is followed up by this week's tsunami of them. Besides retail, there's not much of interest in the way of earnings reports. The bears were actually able to get something going towards the end of last week, so I wonder if they'll be able to follow through, or at least stop the relentless uptrend.
There are also some big macro releases this week. I will defer to Michael McDonough's blog for a better description and overview of those than I could give. It is located at http://fiateconomics.com/
Earnings will continue to pour in this week, too. I use www.earnings.com as my source for earnings reports. These are very important to follow because they have a way of scrambling up the charts. I don't like being in stocks before they report earnings unless I am somehow hedged, be it through reducing my position size or some options action or whatever. I've come to view earnings as a very binary event, a coin flip, if you will. Loading up heavily one way betting on the outcome of a report AND the market's reaction is a very risky endeavour.
The same listing convention still applied. If it reports after the close Tuesday or before the open Wednesday or is shown as Wednesday with no given time, it is listed here as Tuesday. I've also listed the previous Friday's here, too.
I have bold-faced reports that could potentially affect present picks.
Friday: LOW,
Monday: A, TSL, CAH, HD, SKS, SOLF, TGT, TJX,
Tuesday: ADI, HPQ, LZB, BJ, DE, EV, GYMB, NTAP, PERY, TWB, YGE,
Wednesday: HAR, HOTT, JDSU, LTD, PVH, BKS, BONT, DKS, DITC, FL, GME, HNZ, HRL, NM, PDCO, RTP, ROST, SHLD, SFL, GASS, SMRT, STP, TECD, BKE, PLCE, WTSLA,
Thursday: ARO, BRCD, JRJC, GPS, HIBB, INTU, JMBA, MENT, OTEX, PSUN, CRM, ZUMZ, ANN, SJM,
Friday: none
Position: none
There are also some big macro releases this week. I will defer to Michael McDonough's blog for a better description and overview of those than I could give. It is located at http://fiateconomics.com/
Earnings will continue to pour in this week, too. I use www.earnings.com as my source for earnings reports. These are very important to follow because they have a way of scrambling up the charts. I don't like being in stocks before they report earnings unless I am somehow hedged, be it through reducing my position size or some options action or whatever. I've come to view earnings as a very binary event, a coin flip, if you will. Loading up heavily one way betting on the outcome of a report AND the market's reaction is a very risky endeavour.
The same listing convention still applied. If it reports after the close Tuesday or before the open Wednesday or is shown as Wednesday with no given time, it is listed here as Tuesday. I've also listed the previous Friday's here, too.
I have bold-faced reports that could potentially affect present picks.
Friday: LOW,
Monday: A, TSL, CAH, HD, SKS, SOLF, TGT, TJX,
Tuesday: ADI, HPQ, LZB, BJ, DE, EV, GYMB, NTAP, PERY, TWB, YGE,
Wednesday: HAR, HOTT, JDSU, LTD, PVH, BKS, BONT, DKS, DITC, FL, GME, HNZ, HRL, NM, PDCO, RTP, ROST, SHLD, SFL, GASS, SMRT, STP, TECD, BKE, PLCE, WTSLA,
Thursday: ARO, BRCD, JRJC, GPS, HIBB, INTU, JMBA, MENT, OTEX, PSUN, CRM, ZUMZ, ANN, SJM,
Friday: none
Position: none
Overview Friday 14 August...
The bears actually sort of got something going today, but not enough to make me think the tide is turning. However, the bulls were able to take us higher into the close and off the lows of the day, though we were still broadly red on the day. Volume was low, as it was a summer Friday and the newsfow was pretty tranquil. It was a good day for a vacation day.
Short-term bias: bearish (I'm still maintaining this as bearish, if only because I'm not chasing, but I do believe we had a buying climax)
Intermediate-term bias: bearish (I still think this correction will take us lower, perhaps to 800 on the $SPX and I don't think we're ready to power higher quite yet)
Long-term bias: bullish (I believe we put in meaningful, long-term bottoms in March, and would use the aforementioned correction to increase long exposure)
Pick updates:
Aside CELG, which was flat, and BAC, which was up, everything was down. On the whole, the losses were pretty benign, as the market rallied into the close.
I've removed BNI and SGR from the list, as well. I've also culled the prospects list considerably.
Position: long $SPX index fund in 401k
Short-term bias: bearish (I'm still maintaining this as bearish, if only because I'm not chasing, but I do believe we had a buying climax)
Intermediate-term bias: bearish (I still think this correction will take us lower, perhaps to 800 on the $SPX and I don't think we're ready to power higher quite yet)
Long-term bias: bullish (I believe we put in meaningful, long-term bottoms in March, and would use the aforementioned correction to increase long exposure)
Pick updates:
Aside CELG, which was flat, and BAC, which was up, everything was down. On the whole, the losses were pretty benign, as the market rallied into the close.
I've removed BNI and SGR from the list, as well. I've also culled the prospects list considerably.
Position: long $SPX index fund in 401k
Thursday, August 13, 2009
Overview Thursday 13 August...
Once again, the bulls held the market tough. There wasn't really much going on today. We had some earnings and some macro reports out of retail land, but that's about it. Sadly, I was tied up in meetings pretty much all day at my job, so I didn't get to watch the market really at all. Such are the drawbacks of having a first-shift job in New England.
Short-term bias: bearish (I'm still maintaining this as bearish, if only because I'm not chasing, but I do believe we had a buying climax)
Intermediate-term bias: bearish (I still think this correction will take us lower, perhaps to 800 on the $SPX and I don't think we're ready to power higher quite yet)
Long-term bias: bullish (I believe we put in meaningful, long-term bottoms in March, and would use the aforementioned correction to increase long exposure)
Pick updates:
EGO was today's big winner. Its CEO was interviewed on Mad Money last night, so the stock benefited from the Mad Money Effect (aka the Cramer Pop). Mad Money is a widely-watched show, and stocks that are mentioned positively on there tend to get some strong action at the open the following day. It's really quite amazing to watch. If you watch the show with a real-time trading program running in the background, you can actually watch the stocks he mentions pop in the aftermarket. EGO was set up perfectly for this, with a low-volume pullback pattern, and it just needed a catalyst to break out. It got it. EGO is a buy on weakness if you are bullish on gold and I would agree with Cramer that it is one of the best producers out there. Plus it's small.
BAC was also a big winner because of the "news" I mentioned yesterday. It wasn't really news at all, but whatever.
I am taking MJN off the watchlist because I will be moving this one over to the IPO Trader blog.
More watchlist cleaning to come over the weekend, and some additions. I know I said that last weekend, but I mean it this time. :-p
Positions: Positions: long $SPX index fund in 401k
Short-term bias: bearish (I'm still maintaining this as bearish, if only because I'm not chasing, but I do believe we had a buying climax)
Intermediate-term bias: bearish (I still think this correction will take us lower, perhaps to 800 on the $SPX and I don't think we're ready to power higher quite yet)
Long-term bias: bullish (I believe we put in meaningful, long-term bottoms in March, and would use the aforementioned correction to increase long exposure)
Pick updates:
EGO was today's big winner. Its CEO was interviewed on Mad Money last night, so the stock benefited from the Mad Money Effect (aka the Cramer Pop). Mad Money is a widely-watched show, and stocks that are mentioned positively on there tend to get some strong action at the open the following day. It's really quite amazing to watch. If you watch the show with a real-time trading program running in the background, you can actually watch the stocks he mentions pop in the aftermarket. EGO was set up perfectly for this, with a low-volume pullback pattern, and it just needed a catalyst to break out. It got it. EGO is a buy on weakness if you are bullish on gold and I would agree with Cramer that it is one of the best producers out there. Plus it's small.
BAC was also a big winner because of the "news" I mentioned yesterday. It wasn't really news at all, but whatever.
I am taking MJN off the watchlist because I will be moving this one over to the IPO Trader blog.
More watchlist cleaning to come over the weekend, and some additions. I know I said that last weekend, but I mean it this time. :-p
Positions: Positions: long $SPX index fund in 401k
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