Here's a quickie post with a couple miscellaneous links of interest I happened upon this week.
The first is a link to a new trading system which I have begun to experiment with. I found it on Ken Wolff's daytrading website, MTrader. This is a top-notch site focused primarily on daytrading, with a great educational section. The system is called the Catman system, and details about it can be found here and here. Catman's system is very much a common-sense based system, and though not entirely fool-proof (no system truly is, and anyone who tells you otherwise should not be trusted).
I am experimenting with the Catman system in all three of my accounts, namely the trading account, the IRA, and the 401k. In doing this blog so far, I've learned it's important to have a defined system and stick with it, one that gives clear-cut signals of when to buy/cover, sell/short, and avoid. It also helps to take the emotion out of the process. The Catman system appears to function well in multiple timeframes (as would many systems).
The tentative plan is to use the Catman system with daily/weekly charts with the indices in my 401k (I have a lot of index funds in my 401k). Likely, I will use the system with daily/weekly charts of individual stocks and/or levered index ETFs in the IRA. As for the trading account, I will probably try to use intraday charts for daytrades and multi-day trades in the indices and individual stocks. Most likely, I will be sticking with the indices and associated leveraged ETFs in all three accounts for the time being and eventually ease my way into individual stocks in daily and intraday timeframes.
I'm still working this out here, but I think it's quite promising.
The Market Speculator on his blog is presently doing a once-a-week series about how to effectively manage time as a part-time trader. I'm just putting a post here to provide a link to what he's done so far because it's really quite insightful. He's done two parts so far, and they can be reached below.
Part 1
Part 2
That's about it for now.
Sunday, August 23, 2009
Weekly Preview 24-28 August...
I didn't post much last week, as my market time was sidetracked in several different directions. Anyway, the bears started strong last week, but by Tuesday, the bulls had regained control and have now pushed us higher. Last week was expiration week, so we'll probably see a bit of a post-expiration hangover again on Monday. Also, the last day of August is next Monday, so I would expect the bulls to be able to hold us up through this week and into next week (which will experience holiday trading, which also tends to have a bullish bias). I would not expect the bears to get much going on the downside for the next couple weeks.
Earnings are pretty slow this week, as we're well past the peak of the season. However, there is still a lot of retail coming up.
I will defer to Michael McDonough's blog for a better description and overview of those than I could give. It is located at http://fiateconomics.com/
Earnings will continue to pour in this week, too. I use www.earnings.com as my source for earnings reports. These are very important to follow because they have a way of scrambling up the charts. I don't like being in stocks before they report earnings unless I am somehow hedged, be it through reducing my position size or some options action or whatever. I've come to view earnings as a very binary event, a coin flip, if you will. Loading up heavily one way betting on the outcome of a report AND the market's reaction is a very risky endeavour.
The same listing convention still applied. If it reports after the close Tuesday or before the open Wednesday or is shown as Wednesday with no given time, it is listed here as Tuesday. I've also listed the previous Friday's here, too.
Friday: none
Monday: BIG, BGP, BKC, CHS, CMRG, COCO, MDT, SAFM, SBA, SPLS, TUES,
Tuesday: BCSI, DY, ACH, BWS, CM, CEO, CCUR, DLTR, DSW, ISLE, KIRK, WSM,
Wednesday: CWTR, GES, HEI, JAS, SIGM, TIVO, AEO, APWR, CSUN, CHA, DLIA, FRED, GCO, GRB, JCG, RY, SZE, TOL, TD, VIP,
Thursday: ARUN, BEBE, LAVA, MRVL, OVTI, SLH, BNS, TIF,
Friday: CMM, TTWO,
Position: none
Earnings are pretty slow this week, as we're well past the peak of the season. However, there is still a lot of retail coming up.
I will defer to Michael McDonough's blog for a better description and overview of those than I could give. It is located at http://fiateconomics.com/
Earnings will continue to pour in this week, too. I use www.earnings.com as my source for earnings reports. These are very important to follow because they have a way of scrambling up the charts. I don't like being in stocks before they report earnings unless I am somehow hedged, be it through reducing my position size or some options action or whatever. I've come to view earnings as a very binary event, a coin flip, if you will. Loading up heavily one way betting on the outcome of a report AND the market's reaction is a very risky endeavour.
The same listing convention still applied. If it reports after the close Tuesday or before the open Wednesday or is shown as Wednesday with no given time, it is listed here as Tuesday. I've also listed the previous Friday's here, too.
Friday: none
Monday: BIG, BGP, BKC, CHS, CMRG, COCO, MDT, SAFM, SBA, SPLS, TUES,
Tuesday: BCSI, DY, ACH, BWS, CM, CEO, CCUR, DLTR, DSW, ISLE, KIRK, WSM,
Wednesday: CWTR, GES, HEI, JAS, SIGM, TIVO, AEO, APWR, CSUN, CHA, DLIA, FRED, GCO, GRB, JCG, RY, SZE, TOL, TD, VIP,
Thursday: ARUN, BEBE, LAVA, MRVL, OVTI, SLH, BNS, TIF,
Friday: CMM, TTWO,
Position: none
Monday, August 17, 2009
FCX (Short)...
It's been a long time since we looked at FCX as a short here. And that setup for a head-and-shoulders top failed miserably. Indeed, that actually would've proven to be a great time to buy. I missed that one. It could've been worse; I could've been short of it through that massive move higher. Oh well.
But I'm going back to the well here. This time, I think it's an island top forming in FCX. You can see how FCX gapped up to begin August, but gapped down today, thus creating a little island of sorts. This is typically a pretty reliable pattern for a top. Today was also significant in that $60 acted as resistance for several months until it was broken by the aforementioned gap-up to start August.
So we'll look to play it by having a stop above today's highs (call it $61 or so) because if it goes that high, it's probably going to fill that gap, which would take us probably up around $64 or so. I would look for the 50-day and 200-day EMAs to act as support temporarily on a pullback, but if this pattern really sets in, FCX could head back to the bottom of the range and end up around $45.
Position: none
But I'm going back to the well here. This time, I think it's an island top forming in FCX. You can see how FCX gapped up to begin August, but gapped down today, thus creating a little island of sorts. This is typically a pretty reliable pattern for a top. Today was also significant in that $60 acted as resistance for several months until it was broken by the aforementioned gap-up to start August.
So we'll look to play it by having a stop above today's highs (call it $61 or so) because if it goes that high, it's probably going to fill that gap, which would take us probably up around $64 or so. I would look for the 50-day and 200-day EMAs to act as support temporarily on a pullback, but if this pattern really sets in, FCX could head back to the bottom of the range and end up around $45.
Position: none
Overview Monday 17 August...
The bears actually got something going today to start off options expiration week. I was flabbergasted. Though the bulls were able to hold the lows into the close around 980 on the $SPX, they couldn't muster any kind of rally. Volume picked up today, as well. This is ok, though. This is what a correction feels like. Corrections are painful, gutwrenching even. Many times, the biggest recent winners are the biggest losers in a correction. Until the dip-buyers show up, I would be inclined to stand aside and not press much on the long side, preferring to let the market come to me and my levels (and hopefully bottom for me instead of trying to catch the falling knife). As long as this correction doesn't turn into a full-blown reversal, the bulls are still in charge. I'm not inclined to aggressively short at this time, but it's safe to consider shorts again (for now).
Short-term bias: bearish (I'm still maintaining this as bearish, if only because I'm not chasing, but I do believe we had a buying climax)
Intermediate-term bias: bearish (I still think this correction will take us lower, perhaps to 800 on the $SPX and I don't think we're ready to power higher quite yet)
Long-term bias: bullish (I believe we put in meaningful, long-term bottoms in March, and would use the aforementioned correction to increase long exposure)
Pick updates:
As you can see, everything was down today (literally). You will also note that the early cyclicals and economically-sensitive stocks, such as F, FCX, and MAS, took it most bruntly today.
EGO also had a surprisingly bad day, but you can see why I didn't want to chase it last week.
This kind of pullback is bullish in the end because it provides us better entries.
No new additions to the prospects list, either.
Position: long $SPX index fund in 401k
Short-term bias: bearish (I'm still maintaining this as bearish, if only because I'm not chasing, but I do believe we had a buying climax)
Intermediate-term bias: bearish (I still think this correction will take us lower, perhaps to 800 on the $SPX and I don't think we're ready to power higher quite yet)
Long-term bias: bullish (I believe we put in meaningful, long-term bottoms in March, and would use the aforementioned correction to increase long exposure)
Pick updates:
As you can see, everything was down today (literally). You will also note that the early cyclicals and economically-sensitive stocks, such as F, FCX, and MAS, took it most bruntly today.
EGO also had a surprisingly bad day, but you can see why I didn't want to chase it last week.
This kind of pullback is bullish in the end because it provides us better entries.
No new additions to the prospects list, either.
Position: long $SPX index fund in 401k
Saturday, August 15, 2009
Weekly Preview 17-21 August...
Well, last week's wave of retail earnings is followed up by this week's tsunami of them. Besides retail, there's not much of interest in the way of earnings reports. The bears were actually able to get something going towards the end of last week, so I wonder if they'll be able to follow through, or at least stop the relentless uptrend.
There are also some big macro releases this week. I will defer to Michael McDonough's blog for a better description and overview of those than I could give. It is located at http://fiateconomics.com/
Earnings will continue to pour in this week, too. I use www.earnings.com as my source for earnings reports. These are very important to follow because they have a way of scrambling up the charts. I don't like being in stocks before they report earnings unless I am somehow hedged, be it through reducing my position size or some options action or whatever. I've come to view earnings as a very binary event, a coin flip, if you will. Loading up heavily one way betting on the outcome of a report AND the market's reaction is a very risky endeavour.
The same listing convention still applied. If it reports after the close Tuesday or before the open Wednesday or is shown as Wednesday with no given time, it is listed here as Tuesday. I've also listed the previous Friday's here, too.
I have bold-faced reports that could potentially affect present picks.
Friday: LOW,
Monday: A, TSL, CAH, HD, SKS, SOLF, TGT, TJX,
Tuesday: ADI, HPQ, LZB, BJ, DE, EV, GYMB, NTAP, PERY, TWB, YGE,
Wednesday: HAR, HOTT, JDSU, LTD, PVH, BKS, BONT, DKS, DITC, FL, GME, HNZ, HRL, NM, PDCO, RTP, ROST, SHLD, SFL, GASS, SMRT, STP, TECD, BKE, PLCE, WTSLA,
Thursday: ARO, BRCD, JRJC, GPS, HIBB, INTU, JMBA, MENT, OTEX, PSUN, CRM, ZUMZ, ANN, SJM,
Friday: none
Position: none
There are also some big macro releases this week. I will defer to Michael McDonough's blog for a better description and overview of those than I could give. It is located at http://fiateconomics.com/
Earnings will continue to pour in this week, too. I use www.earnings.com as my source for earnings reports. These are very important to follow because they have a way of scrambling up the charts. I don't like being in stocks before they report earnings unless I am somehow hedged, be it through reducing my position size or some options action or whatever. I've come to view earnings as a very binary event, a coin flip, if you will. Loading up heavily one way betting on the outcome of a report AND the market's reaction is a very risky endeavour.
The same listing convention still applied. If it reports after the close Tuesday or before the open Wednesday or is shown as Wednesday with no given time, it is listed here as Tuesday. I've also listed the previous Friday's here, too.
I have bold-faced reports that could potentially affect present picks.
Friday: LOW,
Monday: A, TSL, CAH, HD, SKS, SOLF, TGT, TJX,
Tuesday: ADI, HPQ, LZB, BJ, DE, EV, GYMB, NTAP, PERY, TWB, YGE,
Wednesday: HAR, HOTT, JDSU, LTD, PVH, BKS, BONT, DKS, DITC, FL, GME, HNZ, HRL, NM, PDCO, RTP, ROST, SHLD, SFL, GASS, SMRT, STP, TECD, BKE, PLCE, WTSLA,
Thursday: ARO, BRCD, JRJC, GPS, HIBB, INTU, JMBA, MENT, OTEX, PSUN, CRM, ZUMZ, ANN, SJM,
Friday: none
Position: none
Overview Friday 14 August...
The bears actually sort of got something going today, but not enough to make me think the tide is turning. However, the bulls were able to take us higher into the close and off the lows of the day, though we were still broadly red on the day. Volume was low, as it was a summer Friday and the newsfow was pretty tranquil. It was a good day for a vacation day.
Short-term bias: bearish (I'm still maintaining this as bearish, if only because I'm not chasing, but I do believe we had a buying climax)
Intermediate-term bias: bearish (I still think this correction will take us lower, perhaps to 800 on the $SPX and I don't think we're ready to power higher quite yet)
Long-term bias: bullish (I believe we put in meaningful, long-term bottoms in March, and would use the aforementioned correction to increase long exposure)
Pick updates:
Aside CELG, which was flat, and BAC, which was up, everything was down. On the whole, the losses were pretty benign, as the market rallied into the close.
I've removed BNI and SGR from the list, as well. I've also culled the prospects list considerably.
Position: long $SPX index fund in 401k
Short-term bias: bearish (I'm still maintaining this as bearish, if only because I'm not chasing, but I do believe we had a buying climax)
Intermediate-term bias: bearish (I still think this correction will take us lower, perhaps to 800 on the $SPX and I don't think we're ready to power higher quite yet)
Long-term bias: bullish (I believe we put in meaningful, long-term bottoms in March, and would use the aforementioned correction to increase long exposure)
Pick updates:
Aside CELG, which was flat, and BAC, which was up, everything was down. On the whole, the losses were pretty benign, as the market rallied into the close.
I've removed BNI and SGR from the list, as well. I've also culled the prospects list considerably.
Position: long $SPX index fund in 401k
Thursday, August 13, 2009
Overview Thursday 13 August...
Once again, the bulls held the market tough. There wasn't really much going on today. We had some earnings and some macro reports out of retail land, but that's about it. Sadly, I was tied up in meetings pretty much all day at my job, so I didn't get to watch the market really at all. Such are the drawbacks of having a first-shift job in New England.
Short-term bias: bearish (I'm still maintaining this as bearish, if only because I'm not chasing, but I do believe we had a buying climax)
Intermediate-term bias: bearish (I still think this correction will take us lower, perhaps to 800 on the $SPX and I don't think we're ready to power higher quite yet)
Long-term bias: bullish (I believe we put in meaningful, long-term bottoms in March, and would use the aforementioned correction to increase long exposure)
Pick updates:
EGO was today's big winner. Its CEO was interviewed on Mad Money last night, so the stock benefited from the Mad Money Effect (aka the Cramer Pop). Mad Money is a widely-watched show, and stocks that are mentioned positively on there tend to get some strong action at the open the following day. It's really quite amazing to watch. If you watch the show with a real-time trading program running in the background, you can actually watch the stocks he mentions pop in the aftermarket. EGO was set up perfectly for this, with a low-volume pullback pattern, and it just needed a catalyst to break out. It got it. EGO is a buy on weakness if you are bullish on gold and I would agree with Cramer that it is one of the best producers out there. Plus it's small.
BAC was also a big winner because of the "news" I mentioned yesterday. It wasn't really news at all, but whatever.
I am taking MJN off the watchlist because I will be moving this one over to the IPO Trader blog.
More watchlist cleaning to come over the weekend, and some additions. I know I said that last weekend, but I mean it this time. :-p
Positions: Positions: long $SPX index fund in 401k
Short-term bias: bearish (I'm still maintaining this as bearish, if only because I'm not chasing, but I do believe we had a buying climax)
Intermediate-term bias: bearish (I still think this correction will take us lower, perhaps to 800 on the $SPX and I don't think we're ready to power higher quite yet)
Long-term bias: bullish (I believe we put in meaningful, long-term bottoms in March, and would use the aforementioned correction to increase long exposure)
Pick updates:
EGO was today's big winner. Its CEO was interviewed on Mad Money last night, so the stock benefited from the Mad Money Effect (aka the Cramer Pop). Mad Money is a widely-watched show, and stocks that are mentioned positively on there tend to get some strong action at the open the following day. It's really quite amazing to watch. If you watch the show with a real-time trading program running in the background, you can actually watch the stocks he mentions pop in the aftermarket. EGO was set up perfectly for this, with a low-volume pullback pattern, and it just needed a catalyst to break out. It got it. EGO is a buy on weakness if you are bullish on gold and I would agree with Cramer that it is one of the best producers out there. Plus it's small.
BAC was also a big winner because of the "news" I mentioned yesterday. It wasn't really news at all, but whatever.
I am taking MJN off the watchlist because I will be moving this one over to the IPO Trader blog.
More watchlist cleaning to come over the weekend, and some additions. I know I said that last weekend, but I mean it this time. :-p
Positions: Positions: long $SPX index fund in 401k
Wednesday, August 12, 2009
Overview Wednesday 12 August...
The bulls are still in charge. We started off strong today, but it was pretty boring until 2:15, when the Federal Reserve announced no changes to their rates and a minor wording change in their statement. The market dropped, then popped, then dropped again into the close, but managed to hold well positive for the day.
The post-Fed response was surprisingly dull. The market was actually beginning to price in a possible rate hike by Q1 of 2010, but it appears to have backed off on that and is now not expecting a rate hike before Q3 2010. I'm talking yield curve here, not stock market. To make a long story short since this is a stock blog not a macroeconomics blog, the yield curve steepened today, which indicates the market has pushed out any expected increase in Fed rates.
Short-term bias: bearish (I'm still maintaining this as bearish, if only because I'm not chasing, but I do believe we had a buying climax)
Intermediate-term bias: bearish (I still think this correction will take us lower, perhaps to 800 on the $SPX and I don't think we're ready to power higher quite yet)
Long-term bias: bullish (I believe we put in meaningful, long-term bottoms in March, and would use the aforementioned correction to increase long exposure)
Pick updates:
I sold my PALM calls today. The action from Monday was a big yellow flag to watch this position, as it was a high-volume move towards support at the 50-day EMA. The plan was to give it a little room to try to recover, which it was doing ok at yesterday. But, today, the volume was even higher, suggesting that a significant breakdown was taking place, especially on a day where the rest of the market was up. I think PALM has further downside and is off my watchlist.
Not really much of interest elsewhere on the watchlist. BAC is up big in the aftermarket on news of a big stock purchase, but that's about it. CY also had a solid rally, and this one looks buyable for a starter long position at present levels, but with room to add.
Positions: long $SPX index fund in 401k
The post-Fed response was surprisingly dull. The market was actually beginning to price in a possible rate hike by Q1 of 2010, but it appears to have backed off on that and is now not expecting a rate hike before Q3 2010. I'm talking yield curve here, not stock market. To make a long story short since this is a stock blog not a macroeconomics blog, the yield curve steepened today, which indicates the market has pushed out any expected increase in Fed rates.
Short-term bias: bearish (I'm still maintaining this as bearish, if only because I'm not chasing, but I do believe we had a buying climax)
Intermediate-term bias: bearish (I still think this correction will take us lower, perhaps to 800 on the $SPX and I don't think we're ready to power higher quite yet)
Long-term bias: bullish (I believe we put in meaningful, long-term bottoms in March, and would use the aforementioned correction to increase long exposure)
Pick updates:
I sold my PALM calls today. The action from Monday was a big yellow flag to watch this position, as it was a high-volume move towards support at the 50-day EMA. The plan was to give it a little room to try to recover, which it was doing ok at yesterday. But, today, the volume was even higher, suggesting that a significant breakdown was taking place, especially on a day where the rest of the market was up. I think PALM has further downside and is off my watchlist.
Not really much of interest elsewhere on the watchlist. BAC is up big in the aftermarket on news of a big stock purchase, but that's about it. CY also had a solid rally, and this one looks buyable for a starter long position at present levels, but with room to add.
Positions: long $SPX index fund in 401k
Tuesday, August 11, 2009
Overview Tuesday 11 August...
The bears were able to actually do something today, but the selling has still been mild and contained. The bulls are still in charge, however. Volume was pretty low today, and the heaviest hit stocks today were the best movers from the recent rally. Volume has been light so far this week, which is to be expected since we have a Fed announcement tomorrow afternoon. So, expect mild action tomorrow until that happens.
Short-term bias: bearish (I'm still maintaining this as bearish, if only because I'm not chasing, but I do believe we had a buying climax)
Intermediate-term bias: bearish (I still think this correction will take us lower, perhaps to 800 on the $SPX and I don't think we're ready to power higher quite yet)
Long-term bias: bullish (I believe we put in meaningful, long-term bottoms in March, and would use the aforementioned correction to increase long exposure)
Pick updates:
AIG is just too volatile for what I'm trying to do with this blog, so I will be taking this stock off the watchlist. It was the big loser today.
MDR was the big gainer today, but it is also a candidate for removal. Other candidates for removal include BNI and SGR.
PALM held its own today, which is encouraging. I'm still in this one.
No changes to the potential new picks today, but I've relisted them anyway.
Potential new long picks: AA, AINV, ANSS, BZH, CBS, CQB, CROX, CSIQ, CTSH, FSYS, FWLT, GLBL, GRMN, GXP, HANS, HBC, IAG, JOE, LEN, LL, MMC, PCLN, RL, SPG, THS, TKC, VNO, WFMI
Potential new short picks: ICE, STEC
Positions: long PALM November $12.50 calls and $SPX index fund in 401k
Short-term bias: bearish (I'm still maintaining this as bearish, if only because I'm not chasing, but I do believe we had a buying climax)
Intermediate-term bias: bearish (I still think this correction will take us lower, perhaps to 800 on the $SPX and I don't think we're ready to power higher quite yet)
Long-term bias: bullish (I believe we put in meaningful, long-term bottoms in March, and would use the aforementioned correction to increase long exposure)
Pick updates:
AIG is just too volatile for what I'm trying to do with this blog, so I will be taking this stock off the watchlist. It was the big loser today.
MDR was the big gainer today, but it is also a candidate for removal. Other candidates for removal include BNI and SGR.
PALM held its own today, which is encouraging. I'm still in this one.
No changes to the potential new picks today, but I've relisted them anyway.
Potential new long picks: AA, AINV, ANSS, BZH, CBS, CQB, CROX, CSIQ, CTSH, FSYS, FWLT, GLBL, GRMN, GXP, HANS, HBC, IAG, JOE, LEN, LL, MMC, PCLN, RL, SPG, THS, TKC, VNO, WFMI
Potential new short picks: ICE, STEC
Positions: long PALM November $12.50 calls and $SPX index fund in 401k
Monday, August 10, 2009
Overview Monday 10 August...
It looked like the bears were going to get something going, but they didn't. The market is still holding firm and the bulls are still decidedly in charge. We still could use a pullback, though. It's still hard to buy up here if chasing isn't your style, but that patience will be rewarded eventually with a lower-risk set of entries.
Short-term bias: bearish (I'm still maintaining this as bearish, if only because I'm not chasing, but I do believe we had a buying climax)
Intermediate-term bias: bearish (I still think this correction will take us lower, perhaps to 800 on the $SPX and I don't think we're ready to power higher quite yet)
Long-term bias: bullish (I believe we put in meaningful, long-term bottoms in March, and would use the aforementioned correction to increase long exposure)
Pick updates:
I'm out of DFS (way too late, but better late than never).
PALM took a beating today, but I'm still in it. It managed to basically hold the most recent lows, and as long as it does that, we're not in a downtrend. We had a lower high last week, which is a yellow flag, and today's volume was larger than it has been recently, which is another yellow flag. This is definitely one to keep an eye on.
AIG has rallied hard, and I hope nobody got caught short this thing. It's running into resistance at $30, so a small starter position in AIG as a short could be worthwhile here. As expensive as buying puts is in this name, you CANNOT short the common stock. Events like last week show why. If you were in puts, you'd lose 100% of your money, but if you were short the common stock, you could've lost more than 100% of your money.
Still tons of longs that look juicy on pullbacks. I'm liking F, BAC, and MAS in particular.
I'm mulling switching FCX to a long provided it manages to hold above $60. If it fails to hold $60, I would be inclined to short it. It broke out of a multi-month base and is still consolidating. Let's see what it does first before deciding what to do with it.
Potential new long picks: AA, AINV, ANSS, BZH, CBS, CQB, CROX, CSIQ, CTSH, FSYS, FWLT, GLBL, GRMN, GXP, HANS, HBC, IAG, JOE, LEN, LL, MMC, PCLN, RL, SPG, THS, TKC, VNO, WFMI
Potential new short picks: ICE, STEC
I won't be putting out any new picks until I clean up the present watchlist a little bit.
Positions: long PALM November $12.50 calls and $SPX index fund in 401k
Short-term bias: bearish (I'm still maintaining this as bearish, if only because I'm not chasing, but I do believe we had a buying climax)
Intermediate-term bias: bearish (I still think this correction will take us lower, perhaps to 800 on the $SPX and I don't think we're ready to power higher quite yet)
Long-term bias: bullish (I believe we put in meaningful, long-term bottoms in March, and would use the aforementioned correction to increase long exposure)
Pick updates:
I'm out of DFS (way too late, but better late than never).
PALM took a beating today, but I'm still in it. It managed to basically hold the most recent lows, and as long as it does that, we're not in a downtrend. We had a lower high last week, which is a yellow flag, and today's volume was larger than it has been recently, which is another yellow flag. This is definitely one to keep an eye on.
AIG has rallied hard, and I hope nobody got caught short this thing. It's running into resistance at $30, so a small starter position in AIG as a short could be worthwhile here. As expensive as buying puts is in this name, you CANNOT short the common stock. Events like last week show why. If you were in puts, you'd lose 100% of your money, but if you were short the common stock, you could've lost more than 100% of your money.
Still tons of longs that look juicy on pullbacks. I'm liking F, BAC, and MAS in particular.
I'm mulling switching FCX to a long provided it manages to hold above $60. If it fails to hold $60, I would be inclined to short it. It broke out of a multi-month base and is still consolidating. Let's see what it does first before deciding what to do with it.
Potential new long picks: AA, AINV, ANSS, BZH, CBS, CQB, CROX, CSIQ, CTSH, FSYS, FWLT, GLBL, GRMN, GXP, HANS, HBC, IAG, JOE, LEN, LL, MMC, PCLN, RL, SPG, THS, TKC, VNO, WFMI
Potential new short picks: ICE, STEC
I won't be putting out any new picks until I clean up the present watchlist a little bit.
Positions: long PALM November $12.50 calls and $SPX index fund in 401k
Sunday, August 9, 2009
Weekly Preview 10-14 August...
I didn't pay much attention to the markets most of last week, as I was out on vacation. I did a couple daytrades, but that's about it. It'll take a day or two to get back fully into the swing of things. I don't anticipate blogging as frequently as I have been.
This week will be a big week for retail sector earnings reports. It will be very interesting to see how these play out, but aside from retail, there's not a lot cooking on the earnings calendar this week.
There are also some big macro releases this week. I will defer to Michael McDonough's blog for a better description and overview of those than I could give. It is located at http://fiateconomics.com/
Earnings will continue to pour in this week, too. I use www.earnings.com as my source for earnings reports. These are very important to follow because they have a way of scrambling up the charts. I don't like being in stocks before they report earnings unless I am somehow hedged, be it through reducing my position size or some options action or whatever. I've come to view earnings as a very binary event, a coin flip, if you will. Loading up heavily one way betting on the outcome of a report AND the market's reaction is a very risky endeavour.
The same listing convention still applied. If it reports after the close Tuesday or before the open Wednesday or is shown as Wednesday with no given time, it is listed here as Tuesday. I've also listed the previous Friday's here, too.
I have bold-faced reports that could potentially affect present picks.
Friday: KDE, BBEP, DYN, HOC, PCLN, ROSE, URRE,
Monday: CPST, CLNE, CPL, FLR, FRPT, MDR, RAX, AMAT, BPHX, DNDN, FOSL, FTEK, GEOY, SEED,
Tuesday: CLDN, CLWR, CREE, PAL, PAAS, PRGN, SQM, BHP, CCJ, EJ, ETH, ING, JASO, KGC, LIZ, M, PWE, RICK, SLE, TOL, DV, DPS, FIG,
Wednesday: AAP, BYI, BAP, LDK, NTES, SOL, KSS, EL, VSHP, URBN, URS, WMT,
Thursday: BBI, JWN, RRGB, ANF, JCP, PBR,
Friday: A
Position: none
This week will be a big week for retail sector earnings reports. It will be very interesting to see how these play out, but aside from retail, there's not a lot cooking on the earnings calendar this week.
There are also some big macro releases this week. I will defer to Michael McDonough's blog for a better description and overview of those than I could give. It is located at http://fiateconomics.com/
Earnings will continue to pour in this week, too. I use www.earnings.com as my source for earnings reports. These are very important to follow because they have a way of scrambling up the charts. I don't like being in stocks before they report earnings unless I am somehow hedged, be it through reducing my position size or some options action or whatever. I've come to view earnings as a very binary event, a coin flip, if you will. Loading up heavily one way betting on the outcome of a report AND the market's reaction is a very risky endeavour.
The same listing convention still applied. If it reports after the close Tuesday or before the open Wednesday or is shown as Wednesday with no given time, it is listed here as Tuesday. I've also listed the previous Friday's here, too.
I have bold-faced reports that could potentially affect present picks.
Friday: KDE, BBEP, DYN, HOC, PCLN, ROSE, URRE,
Monday: CPST, CLNE, CPL, FLR, FRPT, MDR, RAX, AMAT, BPHX, DNDN, FOSL, FTEK, GEOY, SEED,
Tuesday: CLDN, CLWR, CREE, PAL, PAAS, PRGN, SQM, BHP, CCJ, EJ, ETH, ING, JASO, KGC, LIZ, M, PWE, RICK, SLE, TOL, DV, DPS, FIG,
Wednesday: AAP, BYI, BAP, LDK, NTES, SOL, KSS, EL, VSHP, URBN, URS, WMT,
Thursday: BBI, JWN, RRGB, ANF, JCP, PBR,
Friday: A
Position: none
Monday, August 3, 2009
HAS and MAT (Longs)...
I only did two picks over the weekend, so here's two tonight of interest. They're both toymakers, HAS and MAT. Both reported earnings in July, so we're good there for a little while. This is kind of a tricky situation in that I like MAT's chart better, but HAS has the upcoming catalyst for some further movement in the new GI Joe movie (which I'm totally pumped about).
MAT has the better chart because this break above $17 is very significant. It was a move above multi-month resistance (it actually dates back several months beyond what this chart shows). I'm looking to take a starter on a low-volume pullback towards $17. I like the consolidation pattern we're seeing here, like in so many other stocks.
HAS, on the other hand, has some more work to do. I like the consolidation, but it's got that high from May around $28 to overcome before it can really power higher. I would expect the upside to come harder for HAS, but the potential is there. This is another one to keep an eye on.
Position: none in stock/options, but long a bunch of GI Joes and Transformers from my youth
MAT has the better chart because this break above $17 is very significant. It was a move above multi-month resistance (it actually dates back several months beyond what this chart shows). I'm looking to take a starter on a low-volume pullback towards $17. I like the consolidation pattern we're seeing here, like in so many other stocks.
HAS, on the other hand, has some more work to do. I like the consolidation, but it's got that high from May around $28 to overcome before it can really power higher. I would expect the upside to come harder for HAS, but the potential is there. This is another one to keep an eye on.
Position: none in stock/options, but long a bunch of GI Joes and Transformers from my youth
Overview Monday 3 August...
The bulls stormed out of the gates to start the new month. Given the start-of-the-month inflows, this should not have been a surprise. The $SPX did make it over the 1,000 level today, but I think resistance is going to kick in soon. The running of the bulls can continue a bit longer, but this is a tough market because if you weren't heavily long already, it's been a vertical and relentless rally with very little consolidation. So, you either have to be willing to chase or be willing to be patient and sit on your hands a bit. I've opted for the latter here.
Short-term bias: bearish (I'm still maintaining this as bearish, if only because I'm not chasing, but I do believe we had a buying climax)
Intermediate-term bias: bearish (I still think this correction will take us lower, perhaps to 800 on the $SPX and I don't think we're ready to power higher quite yet)
Long-term bias: bullish (I believe we put in meaningful, long-term bottoms in March, and would use the aforementioned correction to increase long exposure)
Pick updates:
F just won't quit. However, I didn't like today's action in the name. It felt like a buying climax. Volume was huge, the stock closed at the lows of the day, and the stock was unable to hold its open. I think this one has further to fall, but it's still a bullish chart.
BAC appears to have resolved that squeeze in a bullish manner. It even took out the previous highs. I am looking to buy this one.
Aside from those, there's not much else to say. So, I'll add a new blurb here. Now I'll keep a list of stocks not yet on the list, but probably will get there sooner or later.
Potential new long picks: AA, HBC, LEN
Potential new short picks: none
Postions: long DFS August $12.50 puts, PALM November $12.50 calls, and $SPX index fund in 401k
Short-term bias: bearish (I'm still maintaining this as bearish, if only because I'm not chasing, but I do believe we had a buying climax)
Intermediate-term bias: bearish (I still think this correction will take us lower, perhaps to 800 on the $SPX and I don't think we're ready to power higher quite yet)
Long-term bias: bullish (I believe we put in meaningful, long-term bottoms in March, and would use the aforementioned correction to increase long exposure)
Pick updates:
F just won't quit. However, I didn't like today's action in the name. It felt like a buying climax. Volume was huge, the stock closed at the lows of the day, and the stock was unable to hold its open. I think this one has further to fall, but it's still a bullish chart.
BAC appears to have resolved that squeeze in a bullish manner. It even took out the previous highs. I am looking to buy this one.
Aside from those, there's not much else to say. So, I'll add a new blurb here. Now I'll keep a list of stocks not yet on the list, but probably will get there sooner or later.
Potential new long picks: AA, HBC, LEN
Potential new short picks: none
Postions: long DFS August $12.50 puts, PALM November $12.50 calls, and $SPX index fund in 401k
Sunday, August 2, 2009
EXPE (Long)...
EXPE reported earnings last week and left behind a good multi-month base. This looks like a continuation gap. You can see that back in late April it had a massive gap-up above the 200-day EMA (this one looks like a breakaway gap) and a successful retest of the 200-day EMA back in July. The gap left last week feels more like a continuation gap than an exhaustion gap, but only time will tell. I'm liking what I see here. There are multiple ways to play this one. If Thursday's lows fail to hold, that gap is probably going to get filled and EXPE would probably return to $18. If it goes lower than that, it's going to fall back into the base, and I would then look for a pullback towards the 200-day EMA to act as support. However, I think the stock will hold and after a little consolidation, I believe it will power higher. I'm looking to use weakness towards Thursday's low as a chance to start buying.
Position: none
Position: none
EGO (Long)...
This one interests me. EGO reported earnings last week. As you can see, EGO consistently manages to hold support at the 200-day EMA as it creeps higher in a series of higher highs and highers lows. There are two ways to play this one. The preferred method would be to buy a low-volume pullback towards the 200-day EMA, but if the stock breaks out to new highs, it may be worthwhile to chase. However, the former is clearly preferable. This is one to keep an eye on.
Position: none
Position: none
Weekly Preview 3-7 August...
First, I'll be on vacation this week, so posting will be sporatic (or perhaps nonexistent).
The bulls were able to hold tough last week, exactly like we expected them to do. This week should be interesting. The earnings season has definitely peaked and is now on the decline, but there are still some big ones coming out. I don't expect a lot of action this week, to be honest. Summer is still winding down, but it's not quite done yet.
There are also some big macro releases this week. I will defer to Michael McDonough's blog for a better description and overview of those than I could give. It is located at http://fiateconomics.com/
Earnings will continue to pour in this week, too. I use www.earnings.com as my source for earnings reports. These are very important to follow because they have a way of scrambling up the charts. I don't like being in stocks before they report earnings unless I am somehow hedged, be it through reducing my position size or some options action or whatever. I've come to view earnings as a very binary event, a coin flip, if you will. Loading up heavily one way betting on the outcome of a report AND the market's reaction is a very risky endeavour.
The same listing convention still applied. If it reports after the close Tuesday or before the open Wednesday or is shown as Wednesday with no given time, it is listed here as Tuesday. I've also listed the previous Friday's here, too.
I have bold-faced reports that could potentially affect present picks.
Friday: CLX, DGW, HBC, HUM, JRCC, MRO, MDU, MGM, TAP, MWA, OREX, POR, TSL,
Monday: APC, ARNA, CTX, CHK, HOLX, MWA, PHM, SMSI, STEC, PFG, UPL, UDRL, VMC, AYE, ADM, BRY, FUN, CHD, CTSH, ED, CVS, DHI, DNR, DUK, EMR, ETR, EXPD, FTR, HW, HNT, HS, HSIC, HEW, ICON, ICE, NRGY, JSDA, MLM, NI, OZM, ONXX, PNW, PPL, PGN, RDC, SPG, BID, SWX, SE, THC, PTRY, JOE, TM, UBS, VNO,
Tuesday: APEI, BBND, BMC, BKI, SAM, CEPH, CSTR, CTRP, DVA, DENN, DIVX, DM, DTG, ERTS, SOLR, HCC, JACK, KFT, MASI, MOLX, PZZA, TSRA, TRLG, VCLK, WFMI, AUY, NDN, AGU, AFAM, AWC, AXL, ASCA, WTR, BHI, BZ, CFL, BIP, CCC, CNP, CEDC, CNQR, DWSN, DF, DVN, EBIX, EXM, FIG, FWLT, GRMN, IPSU, IFF, LINC, LL, MMC, NU, OC, PZE, HK, RL, PG, PWR, RDN, RRD, SUN, RIG, TKC, XTO,
Wednesday: ALJ, ACF, ANDE, ATW, BBBB, CECO, CSCO, EGLE, FRP, BGC, ROCK, GLBL, GDP, GXP, HCN, HIMX, IOC, IO, MSSR, MOVE, MUR, ONNN, PACR, PVR, PRU, TECUA, ALL, ACM, AER, ACS, ATK, AIPC, ANSS, EAT, BRS, CSIQ, CMCSA, CLR, CTB, DPTR, DSX, DLTR, EP, FTO, GNA, GFI, HUN, IAG, IMAX, KSWS, MIC, MBI, MPEL, PCS, MIL, NVDA, NVO, OMG, PDC, PSA, RAH, SNI, SIRI, BX, NDAQ, DTV, TRI, WNR, WIN, WWE,
Thursday: ACTI, ASEI, AINV, APL, BZH, NILE, BRKS, CPKI, CBS, CQB, CSC, CROX, HEV, EOG, FSYS, HANS, ZINC, IPI, IPAS, MXIM, MCHP, ONT, OPLK, PGH, POM, SD, TMRK, THS, TPC, VRSN, WTW, ABR, BAM, EIX, MIR, NAT, PMI,
Friday: KDE, BBEP, DYN, HOC, PCLN, ROSE, URRE,
Position: none
The bulls were able to hold tough last week, exactly like we expected them to do. This week should be interesting. The earnings season has definitely peaked and is now on the decline, but there are still some big ones coming out. I don't expect a lot of action this week, to be honest. Summer is still winding down, but it's not quite done yet.
There are also some big macro releases this week. I will defer to Michael McDonough's blog for a better description and overview of those than I could give. It is located at http://fiateconomics.com/
Earnings will continue to pour in this week, too. I use www.earnings.com as my source for earnings reports. These are very important to follow because they have a way of scrambling up the charts. I don't like being in stocks before they report earnings unless I am somehow hedged, be it through reducing my position size or some options action or whatever. I've come to view earnings as a very binary event, a coin flip, if you will. Loading up heavily one way betting on the outcome of a report AND the market's reaction is a very risky endeavour.
The same listing convention still applied. If it reports after the close Tuesday or before the open Wednesday or is shown as Wednesday with no given time, it is listed here as Tuesday. I've also listed the previous Friday's here, too.
I have bold-faced reports that could potentially affect present picks.
Friday: CLX, DGW, HBC, HUM, JRCC, MRO, MDU, MGM, TAP, MWA, OREX, POR, TSL,
Monday: APC, ARNA, CTX, CHK, HOLX, MWA, PHM, SMSI, STEC, PFG, UPL, UDRL, VMC, AYE, ADM, BRY, FUN, CHD, CTSH, ED, CVS, DHI, DNR, DUK, EMR, ETR, EXPD, FTR, HW, HNT, HS, HSIC, HEW, ICON, ICE, NRGY, JSDA, MLM, NI, OZM, ONXX, PNW, PPL, PGN, RDC, SPG, BID, SWX, SE, THC, PTRY, JOE, TM, UBS, VNO,
Tuesday: APEI, BBND, BMC, BKI, SAM, CEPH, CSTR, CTRP, DVA, DENN, DIVX, DM, DTG, ERTS, SOLR, HCC, JACK, KFT, MASI, MOLX, PZZA, TSRA, TRLG, VCLK, WFMI, AUY, NDN, AGU, AFAM, AWC, AXL, ASCA, WTR, BHI, BZ, CFL, BIP, CCC, CNP, CEDC, CNQR, DWSN, DF, DVN, EBIX, EXM, FIG, FWLT, GRMN, IPSU, IFF, LINC, LL, MMC, NU, OC, PZE, HK, RL, PG, PWR, RDN, RRD, SUN, RIG, TKC, XTO,
Wednesday: ALJ, ACF, ANDE, ATW, BBBB, CECO, CSCO, EGLE, FRP, BGC, ROCK, GLBL, GDP, GXP, HCN, HIMX, IOC, IO, MSSR, MOVE, MUR, ONNN, PACR, PVR, PRU, TECUA, ALL, ACM, AER, ACS, ATK, AIPC, ANSS, EAT, BRS, CSIQ, CMCSA, CLR, CTB, DPTR, DSX, DLTR, EP, FTO, GNA, GFI, HUN, IAG, IMAX, KSWS, MIC, MBI, MPEL, PCS, MIL, NVDA, NVO, OMG, PDC, PSA, RAH, SNI, SIRI, BX, NDAQ, DTV, TRI, WNR, WIN, WWE,
Thursday: ACTI, ASEI, AINV, APL, BZH, NILE, BRKS, CPKI, CBS, CQB, CSC, CROX, HEV, EOG, FSYS, HANS, ZINC, IPI, IPAS, MXIM, MCHP, ONT, OPLK, PGH, POM, SD, TMRK, THS, TPC, VRSN, WTW, ABR, BAM, EIX, MIR, NAT, PMI,
Friday: KDE, BBEP, DYN, HOC, PCLN, ROSE, URRE,
Position: none
Overview Friday 31 July...
Friday was a somewhat eventless close to the month. The broad indices were more or less flat for the day to cap out a very bullish month. So August starts on Monday, and I expect to see some start of the month inflows. At the start of the month, a lot of money tends to rush into the market as IRAs tend to put money into the market. I do think the market is starting to peter out and I expect a further pullback coming up. The action from this week feels panicky and felt very manipulated to go with the end of the month.
Short-term bias: bearish (I'm still maintaining this as bearish, if only because I'm not chasing, but I do believe we had a buying climax)
Intermediate-term bias: bearish (I still think this correction will take us lower, perhaps to 800 on the $SPX and I don't think we're ready to power higher quite yet)
Long-term bias: bullish (I believe we put in meaningful, long-term bottoms in March, and would use the aforementioned correction to increase long exposure)
Pick updates:
I did a little housecleaning in the list. I've removed ALVR and RIG.
ALVR had a dreadful week, shedding about 20% following a weak quarter and the resignation of their CEO. I don't like this stock's chances of holding support, and I am removing it from the watchlist.
As for RIG, I simply don't like its setup anymore as a short. It rallied above its 200-day EMA and thus far has successfully held that level. I think it holds support here and I don't see it as a viable short right now.
The early cyclicals were the big movers today, with BAC, F, GT, and MAS rallying hard. Pretty much everything else was flat.
Postions: long DFS August $12.50 puts, PALM November $12.50 calls, and $SPX index fund in 401k
Short-term bias: bearish (I'm still maintaining this as bearish, if only because I'm not chasing, but I do believe we had a buying climax)
Intermediate-term bias: bearish (I still think this correction will take us lower, perhaps to 800 on the $SPX and I don't think we're ready to power higher quite yet)
Long-term bias: bullish (I believe we put in meaningful, long-term bottoms in March, and would use the aforementioned correction to increase long exposure)
Pick updates:
I did a little housecleaning in the list. I've removed ALVR and RIG.
ALVR had a dreadful week, shedding about 20% following a weak quarter and the resignation of their CEO. I don't like this stock's chances of holding support, and I am removing it from the watchlist.
As for RIG, I simply don't like its setup anymore as a short. It rallied above its 200-day EMA and thus far has successfully held that level. I think it holds support here and I don't see it as a viable short right now.
The early cyclicals were the big movers today, with BAC, F, GT, and MAS rallying hard. Pretty much everything else was flat.
Postions: long DFS August $12.50 puts, PALM November $12.50 calls, and $SPX index fund in 401k
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)