Overview Thursday 30 July...

The bulls came out hot at the open in a stark contrast to the previous few days. They even created a big gap-up open. They tried to run the $SPX over 1,000, but came just short. The $COMPX actually got over 2,000 briefly today. However, the bulls were not able to keep it up into the close. Though we still finished broadly higher on the day, the weakness into the close is a very big yellow flag. Today's action felt like end-of-the-month markups prior to tomorrow's GDP release, and the early buying felt like some more panic buying. We'll have to see how it plays out tomorrow, but today could've been a buying climax for the multi-week advance.

Short-term bias: bearish (I'm still maintaining this as bearish, if only because I'm not chasing, but I do believe we had a buying climax)

Intermediate-term bias: bearish (I still think this correction will take us lower, perhaps to 800 on the $SPX and I don't think we're ready to power higher quite yet)

Long-term bias: bullish (I believe we put in meaningful, long-term bottoms in March, and would use the aforementioned correction to increase long exposure)

Pick updates:

CY is one to watch. It appears to have put in a climax today, but on a pullback into the $9.50-$10 range, I'll start a long position.

Some of the early cyclicals (F, MAS, and PPG) really ran today, but I'm not chasing these up here because I believe I'll be able to get into all three cheaper than they presently are. I still like all three as longs, but not up here.

SBUX and CELG are also trying to break free. These are two to keep an eye on, too.

I'll do some housecleaning in the list this weekend. It needs to happen.



Postions: long DFS August $12.50 puts, PALM November $12.50 calls, and $SPX index fund in 401k