Tuesday, July 14, 2009

AIG (Short)...

To go with the short-term BKC long pick below, I wanted to add another short-term pick tonight. We're going back to the well with AIG on the short side. I removed the stock from the watchlist as a short following Thursday's close, and am I glad I did because the stock has almost doubled since. Staying small is vital here. The plan is to take a small short around present levels with a stop above today's high. I will look to add to that on a break down below $14, which has established itself as support over the past two days.

Why am I putting this one out there now? I'm not typically a big user of Fibonacci retracements, but it sure looks to me like AIG just put in a 38.2% retracement of its recent plunge. It coincides very cosely with today's high (my lines aren't exact).

My expectation is that the bears will reassert themselves here and drive AIG lower again. Note also how large today's volume was, yet the stock closed relatively flat. This is a whippy one, so tread carefully.



Position: none

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