Overview Tuesday 28 July...

Like yesterday, not a whole heck of a lot to say. However, a clear pattern has been emerging lately. We're seeing a lot of weak opens in the mornings and weakness that persists through say lunchtime, but we're seeing strong closes, as the market consistently is going out at/near its highs for the day. This tells me we have an underlying bid in the market, as the bulls are seizing on any dip to buy. This is not the kind of thing you look to short unless you're looking for quickie trades. I was tempted today in a couple cases, but didn't pull the trigger. I still expect us to hold up through the end of the month.

Short-term bias: bearish (I'm still maintaining this as bearish, if only because I'm not chasing)

Intermediate-term bias: bearish (I still think this correction will take us lower, perhaps to 800 on the $SPX and I don't think we're ready to power higher quite yet)

Long-term bias: bullish (I believe we put in meaningful, long-term bottoms in March, and would use the aforementioned correction to increase long exposure)

Pick updates:

This weekend I'll do some housecleaning on the list here. Expected deletions include BNI, DELL, SGR, and MDR. I may also shed ALVR, but we'll see. DFS will be shed once I get a better escape. I'd like to keep this list at 25-30 stocks. Part of the reason I started this blog was to focus my efforts, and if the watchlist gets too big, then that kind of defeats that whole purpose.

Still not a whole heck of a lot of movement, just some consolidation. However, CELG did poke its head above the previous high like F did yesterday, so these two are still ones to watch.

Nearly nibbled on some VMW calls today. I was looking at the October $30's. I'm liking those, as they're far enough away to allow me to sell some calls against them in call spreads.



Postions: long DFS August $12.50 puts, PALM November $12.50 calls, and $SPX index fund in 401k