Monday, August 3, 2009

Overview Monday 3 August...

The bulls stormed out of the gates to start the new month. Given the start-of-the-month inflows, this should not have been a surprise. The $SPX did make it over the 1,000 level today, but I think resistance is going to kick in soon. The running of the bulls can continue a bit longer, but this is a tough market because if you weren't heavily long already, it's been a vertical and relentless rally with very little consolidation. So, you either have to be willing to chase or be willing to be patient and sit on your hands a bit. I've opted for the latter here.

Short-term bias: bearish (I'm still maintaining this as bearish, if only because I'm not chasing, but I do believe we had a buying climax)

Intermediate-term bias: bearish (I still think this correction will take us lower, perhaps to 800 on the $SPX and I don't think we're ready to power higher quite yet)

Long-term bias: bullish (I believe we put in meaningful, long-term bottoms in March, and would use the aforementioned correction to increase long exposure)

Pick updates:

F just won't quit. However, I didn't like today's action in the name. It felt like a buying climax. Volume was huge, the stock closed at the lows of the day, and the stock was unable to hold its open. I think this one has further to fall, but it's still a bullish chart.

BAC appears to have resolved that squeeze in a bullish manner. It even took out the previous highs. I am looking to buy this one.

Aside from those, there's not much else to say. So, I'll add a new blurb here. Now I'll keep a list of stocks not yet on the list, but probably will get there sooner or later.

Potential new long picks: AA, HBC, LEN

Potential new short picks: none



Postions: long DFS August $12.50 puts, PALM November $12.50 calls, and $SPX index fund in 401k

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